CFA's Outbreak Response Work

What to know

  • CFA uses both qualitative and quantitative tools to support CDC responses to infectious disease outbreaks.
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Risk Assessments

CFA's qualitative risk assessment methods are designed to make rapid assessments of the current public health implications of an outbreak. These methods are designed to be used early in an outbreak when quantitative data are limited. For each assessment, we consider evidence underpinning risk, key uncertainties, and factors that could change the assessment. Risk is assessed for the general U.S. population and specific populations at higher risk or of interest to decision-makers.

These risk assessments have been used to inform CDC leadership, public health professionals, and partners engaged in emergency response activities.

For Public Health Risk Assessments

Outbreak Scenario Assessments

CFA's outbreak scenario assessments are designed to assess what could occur in the coming weeks to months of an outbreak. These methods are designed to be used early in an outbreak, when information is limited, and may be updated over time if the situation changes. To develop a scenario assessment, we consider insights from previous outbreaks of the disease, the current state of the outbreak, and the potential role of public health interventions in the outbreak. We also incorporate modeling insights where appropriate to help identify interventions that may play a critical role in slowing the outbreak, as well as key sources of uncertainty.

CFA's scenario assessments inform CDC leadership, public health professionals, and partners engaged in planning and executing emergency response activities.

For Public Health Outbreak Scenario Assessments

Outbreak Modeling

CFA uses a wide range of mathematical modeling approaches to support the response to infectious disease outbreaks. These approaches include nowcasting, Rt estimation, and a variety of transmission models. In response to an outbreak, CFA can use modeling as a component of a scenario assessment or as an independent analysis. The type of modeling CFA can provide depends on the data available, the question at hand, and what type of outbreak is occurring.

Keep Reading Outbreak Response Modeling

Toolkit

To read more about CFA’s outbreak response support options, or share with different audiences, see our downloadable summaries of the types of outbreak response support CFA provides:

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Content Source:
Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics