COVID-19 Ensemble Forecasts

What to know

  • The CovidHub ensemble predicts that for the week ending February 21, 2026, the weekly percentage of new emergency department (ED) visits due to COVID-19 in the United States will be 0.56% (95% prediction interval: 0.36% -0.95%). The median forecast suggests a decrease from 0.59%, which was reported for the week ending February 7, 2026 (the most recent week of reporting).
  • Ensemble forecasting also predicts that the number of new laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions in the United States during the week ending February 21, 2026 will be approximately 5,600 (3,500-8,400). The median forecast suggests minimal to no change compared to the 5,600 admissions so far reported for the week ending February 7, 2026.
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National and state forecasts

Select forecast location, date, and models below. Modeling based on forecasts submitted by . Click and drag to change the forecast date to see how previous forecasts performed against reported data.

Historical data
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Interpretation of forecasts

  • Overview: Forecasted percent of ED visits and new hospital admissions due to COVID-19. This week, 3 modeling groups contributed 3 forecasts of ED visits and 10 modeling groups contributed 11 forecasts of hospital admissions that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
  • What are ensemble models?: Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from all submitted models into one forecast. These forecasts have been among the most accurate for previous COVID-19 forecasting efforts but may not reliably predict rapid changes in disease trends.
  • What does the figure show?: The figure shows the percentage of COVID-19 emergency department visits each week reported from October 1, 2022 through February 7, 2026, number of new laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from August 8, 2020 through February 7, 2026, and forecasted new COVID-19 emergency department visits and hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks through February 28, 2026. The colored areas on the graph show prediction intervals, which indicate the bounds of uncertainty around the forecast estimates.

How and why are the forecasts different?

In February 2026, we added weekly percentage of new emergency department (ED) visits due to COVID-19 to this forecast ensemble report. This new target represents COVID-19 as a percentage of ED visits, aggregated by week and jurisdiction.

Individuals may seek care in an emergency room before being hospitalized; as such, hospital admissions rates tend to lag ED visit percentages due to COVID-19 by 1-2 weeks. Because of this, ED visit forecasts may differ in direction from hospital admissions forecasts and can provide a more timely indication of disease trends by week and jurisdiction.

  • How do we calculate the rates/percentages? The forecasted percentages of ED visits due to COVID-19 are calculated by dividing the number of visits with a discharge diagnosis of COVID-19 in a one-week period (the numerator) by the total number of ED visits in the same period (denominator) at the relevant jurisdictional level. The forecasted hospital admission rates (for both median and prediction intervals) use Census Vintage 2023 population estimates as a population denominator for the state. We note that the denominator for rates may not capture the exact catchment populations of the hospitals in each state, but rates provide a rough adjustment for population size, allowing comparison across states with different population sizes.
  • Data Reporting: Reporting of COVID-19 specific emergency department visits is voluntary through the National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP); however, many facilities participate in automated reporting, resulting in reasonably stable visit levels over time. Hospitals are required to report weekly laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations to the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). Review Hospital Respiratory Data for additional details on this guidance. Historical data from NHSN are not shown from April 28-November 1, 2024, due to the pause in mandatory reporting.
  • The following jurisdictions had <80% of hospitals reporting for the most recent week:
    Alaska, Arkansas, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, United States, Vermont, and Wyoming. Lower reporting rates could impact forecast validity.
    • Percent of hospitals reporting is calculated based on the number of active facilities reporting complete data to NHSN for a given reporting week.
  • More Information: Forecast submissions are collected and stored in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub GitHub repository, which also contains more detailed information about the forecast data and submission process.
    • A data dictionary for the downloadable CSV is also available in a public GitHub repository.

Contributing teams and models

Individual model websites are linked where available.

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Content Source:
Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics