Preliminary Cancer Incidence Estimates

What to know

Preliminary cancer incidence rates and counts for 2023 were estimated for the United States.

Overview

Because collecting complete information about cancer cases takes time, preliminary estimates can help identify changes in cancer trends sooner. This allows for quicker recognition of important changes and helps guide research and health care professionals to focus on areas of concern. Preliminary estimates also support timely public health actions, better resource planning, and informed policy decisions.

Methods

A brief description of the methods for estimating preliminary case rates and counts is provided below. For specific inquiries, please email the U.S. Cancer Statistics team at uscsdata@cdc.gov.

Preliminary counts and rates of new cancer cases diagnosed in 2023 were estimated using age-period-cohort regression models12 based on U.S. Cancer Statistics incidence data, National Cancer Institute-modified bridged-race population estimates, and U.S. Census Bureau population projections. Separate models were fit for each cancer site (23 common cancers and all other cancer types combined) by sex (male and female). Estimates for all cancers combined were obtained by summing across cancer types. Estimates for both sexes were obtained by summing estimates for males and females. The preliminary case counts by cancer type (all cancers combined and 23 common cancers) and sex (both sexes, male, and female) were calculated by multiplying age-specific rates by age-specific population estimates, then summing across age groups. The preliminary incidence rates by cancer type and sex were age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population using 18 age groups (0 to 4 years, 5 to 9 years, 10 to 14 years, 15 to 19 years, and so on through 85 years and older).

Available data

Estimates are presented for all cancers combined and 23 common cancers. Estimates are presented by sex (both sexes, male, and female).

Please be mindful that these estimated counts and rates are based on model-based projections. Estimates can be useful for planning purposes, but observed counts and rates reported by population-based cancer registries are considered the gold standard.

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Content Source:
National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion; Division of Cancer Prevention and Control
  1. Møller B, Fekjaer H, Hakulinen T, et al. Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries up to the year 2020. Eur J Cancer Prev. 2002;11(Suppl 1):S1–S96.
  2. Møller B, Fekjaer H, Hakulinen T, et al. Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries: empirical comparison of different approaches. Stat Med. 2003;22(17):2751–2766.