Dynamic Patterns and Modeling of Early COVID-19 Transmission by Dynamic Mode Decomposition

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In general, the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases increased slowly in the beginning 100 days and then quickly in the remaining days for nearly all 6 states. California, Florida, Georgia, and Texas showed peaks in daily increments around 100 days, while North Dakota and South Dakota kept increasing during the study period.

Figure 1.
The cumulative number of COVID-19 cases (dashed line) and daily increments (solid line) in the US (A) and in 6 states, April 6, 2020, to October 9, 2020. B, California. C, Florida. D, Georgia. E, North Dakota. F, South Dakota. G, Texas. Data source: COVID-19 Tracking Project (14).

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Please see the main text for a detailed description of the components of this figure.

Figure 2.
Dynamic mode decomposition analysis of COVID-19 transmission in the US, April 6, 2020, to October 9, 2020. A, The spread of COVID-19 cases in each state, territory, and the District of Columbia. B, The normalized data for each state, territory, and District of Columbia. C, Truncation energy. D, The plot versus frequency. E, The eigenvalue spectrum. Dots in the circle indicate decaying of COVID-19 cases, dots on the circle indicate oscillating of COVID-19 cases, and dots outside of the circle indicate spreading of COVID-19 cases. F, The eigen mode matrix for the US data indicates the contribution from each geospatial location. G, The magnitude of the selected mode (the dominant mode with ω = 0, = 2.1147) that has the highest . The magnitude plot shows that California, Louisiana, Kansas, Georgia, and Texas have more COVID-19 cases than other states. Phase plot indicates that Arizona, Florida, Texas, New York, and Washington State were arriving at the peak of COVID-19 cases close in time. Data source: COVID-19 Tracking Project (14).

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