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Validation of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM)
ORIGINAL RESEARCH — Volume 18 — February 4, 2021
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This figure provides an overview of the model structure including the relationship between intervention strategies, risk factors, and outcomes.
Figure 1.
Diagram of the PRISM model. Abbreviations: CPAP, continuous positive airway pressure; CVD, cardiovascular disease; PRISM, Prevention Impacts Simulation Model.
Figure 2.
Results of 1-way sensitivity analysis of PRISM parameters that affected the impact of PRISM strategies on preventing cardiovascular deaths by more than ±0.5% compared with the estimated deaths averted from the base run (n = 15,672,020). Abbreviation: CVD, cardiovascular disease. (Minimum and maximum values used in 1-way sensitivity analysis are available upon request.)
| Analysis | Cumulative CVD Deaths Averted (2018–2040) | |
|---|---|---|
| Lower Bound | Upper Bound | |
| Multiplier for fruit/vegetable–poor diet from access | 15,592,960 | 15,975,310 |
| Onset-reducing effect of clinically controlling prediabetes | 15,633,170 | 15,763,020 |
| Multiplier on smoking quits from maximum marketing restriction | 15,540,520 | 15,725,640 |
| Multiplier on smoking quits from maximum countermarketing | 15,540,520 | 15,725,640 |
| Relative cardiovascular event fatality if distressed | 15,556,430 | 15,797,190 |
| Onset-reducing effect of controlling borderline blood pressure | 15,648,570 | 15,941,810 |
| Mitigating effect of quality CVD care for cardiovascular event risk | 15,489,010 | 15,859,030 |
| Cardiovascular relative risk if fruit/vegetable–poor diet | 15,592,960 | 15,975,310 |
| Relative cardiovascular events directly due to 2005 trans fat fraction | 15,426,820 | 15,969,070 |
| Effect of quality acute and rehabilitation care on cardiovascular event fatality | 14,959,130 | 16,136,860 |
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