What to know
CDC expects the upcoming fall and winter virus season will likely have a similar or lower peak hospitalization burden due to COVID-19, influenza (flu), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) compared to last season. Vaccination remains the best way to protect yourself and your loved ones against serious outcomes from flu, COVID-19 and RSV.
Summary
What CDC knows
Every winter, the U.S. hospital system prepares for an increase in illnesses, emergency department visits and hospitalizations caused by COVID-19, flu, and RSV. COVID-19 has added substantial disease burden to the respiratory season as well as during the summer; with a significant wave of COVID -19 activity happening this summer. With all three of these viruses spreading during the fall and winter, however, even moderate seasons for each of the three diseases could result in more hospitalizations than severe seasons of influenza and RSV on their own.
What CDC is doing
CDC combined expert opinion, historical data, and scenario modeling to provide decision-makers a look ahead at the upcoming respiratory virus season. CDC continues to monitor respiratory disease activity and will update this assessment throughout the fall and winter.
More respiratory disease seen in fall and winter
Fall and winter are a time when viruses that cause respiratory disease usually circulate more heavily in communities. Although some people have mild symptoms when they have COVID-19, flu, or RSV, others get very sick and must be hospitalized. Some seasons are more severe than others based on what viruses are circulating and people's immune profiles and their resulting response to these viruses. One measure of the severity of a season is how many people need to be hospitalized, which can put stress on the healthcare system.
Outlook for upcoming fall and winter virus season
CDC expects the upcoming fall and winter respiratory disease season (2024-2025) will likely have a similar or lower combined peak hospital burden due to COVID-19, flu, and RSV compared to last season (2023-2024).
This outlook is based on expert opinion, historical data, and scenario modeling for COVID-19, flu, and RSV. Experts believe there is a roughly 80% chance this season's combined peak hospitalizations will be similar to or lower than last season. However, some factors could drive those numbers higher. These include the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant leading to more severe illness or immune escape; a flu virus with more severe outcomes; or lower vaccination coverage or vaccine effectiveness.
In this outlook, CDC developed three potential scenarios for the combined peak hospital burden of COVID-19, flu, and RSV—similar peak, higher peak, and lower peak scenarios compared to last season. CDC's Center for Forecasting and Analytics, in collaboration with CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, developed disease-specific scenario models to better understand how the season could unfold for each disease. Our Behind the Model article features more detail on our modeling methods. Modeling results are intended for healthcare and public health preparedness.
Protect yourself and your loved ones
Vaccination remains the best way to protect yourself and your loved ones against serious outcomes from certain viral respiratory illnesses. While vaccination is important for everyone, it is especially important for people at higher risk of developing serious disease complications.
