Monitoring the Future (MTF)

Overview

MTF is an ongoing study that uses annual surveys to track the behaviors, attitudes, and values of U.S. secondary school students, college students, and adults through age 65. Data collected include lifetime, annual, 30-day prevalence, and daily use of many illegal drugs, inhalants, tobacco, marijuana, and alcohol.

Coverage

MTF surveys a sample of 12th, 10th, and 8th graders in public and private high schools in the contiguous United States. Follow-up questionnaires are mailed to randomly selected 12th grade participants to gather information on college students, young adults, and older adults.

Methodology

The survey design is a multistage random sample, with stage 1 being the selection of particular geographic areas; stage 2 the selection of one or more high schools in each area; and stage 3 the selection of students within each school. Before 2019, data were collected using self-administered, paper-and-pencil questionnaires conducted in the classroom by representatives of the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research. In 2019, MTF conducted a randomized controlled experiment in which students in a randomly selected one-half of schools completed the survey with electronic tablets connected to the Internet and the other one-half completed the survey with traditional paper-and-pencil questionnaires. For the first time in 2020, all students completed a web-based questionnaire using Internet-connected tablets provided by MTF. Starting in 2021, electronic surveys are completed by students on their own Internet-connected electronic devices. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, MTF was unable to conduct a randomized controlled test of the web-survey mode in comparison with electronic tablets. However, MTF expects that such a test would have shown little to no difference in drug prevalence across the two modes, because the 2019 randomized controlled study that tested the much more substantial mode difference of electronic data collection compared with the traditional paper-and-pencil questionnaires found no significant effect on drug prevalence estimates. As a result, drug prevalence estimates for 2021 and beyond can be directly compared with estimates from previous data years. For more information about the randomized controlled study, see: Miech RA et al., 2020.

MTF was expanded in 1991 to include nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders. Separate samples of schools are drawn at each grade level, and the survey procedures used for the 8th and 10th grade students closely parallel those used for the 12th grade students. This results in three independent, nationally representative samples each year.

Students who have dropped out or are absent from school or class on the day of data collection are not included in the estimates. Consequently, MTF drug prevalence estimates underestimate true prevalence for the entire age cohort, although only slightly. For more information on the effect of dropouts and absentees on MTF estimates, see Appendix A of Johnston et al. (data years 2014 and earlier) and Miech RA et al., 2023 (data years 2015 onward).

Sample Size and Response Rate

In 2021, 32,260 students in 319 public and private schools in the contiguous United States participated. The 12th grade sample comprised 9,022 students in 98 public and private high schools nationwide. The 10th grade sample comprised 11,792 students in 100 schools, while the 8th grade sample comprised 11,446 students in 121 schools. Student response rates within schools in 2021 were 69% for the 12th grade, 78% for the 10th grade, and 82% for the 8th grade. In 2022, 31,438 students in 308 public and private schools in the contiguous United States participated. The 12th grade sample comprised 9,599 students in 102 public and private high schools nationwide. The 10th grade sample comprised 11,950 students in 102 schools, while the 8th grade sample comprised 9,889 students in 104 schools. Student response rates within schools in 2022 were 75% for the 12th grade, 84% for the 10th grade, and 86% for the 8th grade sample. Response rates have been relatively constant across time. Absentees make up almost all of the nonresponding students.

Issues Affecting Interpretation

Estimates of substance use among youth based on the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) are not directly comparable with estimates based on MTF. In addition to the fact that MTF excludes dropouts and absentees, rates are not directly comparable across these surveys because of differences in populations covered, sample design, questionnaires, interview setting, and data-cleaning procedures. NSDUH collects data in homes, whereas MTF collects data in school classrooms. In addition, NSDUH estimates are tabulated by age, whereas MTF estimates are tabulated by grade, representing different ages as well as different populations.

In 2020, in-school data collection was halted on March 15, 2020, because of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a sample size about one-quarter the size of a typical data collection. Detailed analyses of the 2020 results indicate that the condensed 2020 sample did not differ from the nationally representative sample results from previous years in terms of sociodemographic characteristics and prevalence of substance use were for substances that had been stable in recent years (Miech R et al.).

References

Cowan CD. Coverage, sample design, and weighting in three federal surveys. J Drug Issues 31(3):599–614. 2001.

Miech RA, Johnston LD, O’Malley PM, Bachman JG, Schulenberg JE. Monitoring the Future national survey results on drug use, 1975–2014: Volume 1, secondary school students. 2015.

Miech RA, Couper MP, Heeringa SG, Patrick ME. The impact of survey mode on US national estimates of adolescent drug prevalence: Results from a randomized controlled study. Addiction 116(5): 1144–51. 2020. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/add.15249.

Miech RA, Johnston LD, Patrick ME, O’Malley PM, Bachman JG, Schulenberg JE. Monitoring the Future national survey results on drug use, 1975–2022: Secondary school students. 2023.

Miech R, Leventhal A, Johnston L, O’Malley PM, Patrick ME, Barrington-Trimis J. Trends in use and perceptions of nicotine vaping among US youth from 2017 to 2020. JAMA Pediatr 175(2):185–90. 2021.

For more information, see the NIDA website and the MTF website.