Public Health Models and Tools

Biological Threat Planning and Response Tools

• Maxi-Vac: Informs planning for large-scale smallpox vaccination clinics with maximum patient flow-through.
• Anthrax Assist: Projects hospitalizations and casualties from a newly detected inhalation anthrax event and evaluates the impact of a population-wide campaign to provide antibiotic prophylaxis.
• Beds for Ebola Disease (BED): Estimates the number of specialized beds for treating Ebola patients in the United States as a result of an outbreak abroad.
• EbolaResponse: Estimates the future number of Ebola cases.
• MedCon:Pre-Event: Estimates the baseline medical care requirements (per 100,000 unit of population) following a disaster due to terrorism or natural phenomenon.

Pandemic Planning and Response

Increased Demand for Staff, Services, and Supplies

• COVID-19 Surge: Enables hospital administrators and public health officials to estimate the surge in demand for hospital-based services during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• COVIDTracer and COVIDTracer Advanced: Allows users to estimate the resources needed for and model the impact of contact tracing activities in terms of the numbers of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted.
• COVID-Vac: Helps managers of large-scale COVID-19 vaccination clinics to set up clinics and maximize the triaging of patients.
• FluAid 2.0: Assists state and local level planners to prepare for the next influenza pandemic.
• FluSurge 2.0: Helps hospital administrators and public health officials estimate the surge in demand for hospital-based services during the next influenza pandemic.
• FluLabSurge 1.0: Assists laboratory directors with forecasting demand for specimen testing during an influenza pandemic and developing response plans.
• Demand for Respirators and Surgical Masks During Influenza Pandemic in the United States: Informs planning for an influenza pandemic by estimating U.S. demand for N95 filtering respirators (respirators) by healthcare and emergency services personnel and the need for surgical masks by pandemic patients seeking care.
• Influenza AH7N9 Models in Response to a Potential Public Health Emergency: Presents five models assessing the potential demand for mechanical ventilators, respirators and surgical masks, influenza anti-viral drugs, and the potential impacts of a vaccination program and school closures to prepare for a potential AH7N9 influenza pandemic.

Vaccination Planning

• Community Flu: Simulates the spread of influenza through a model community and the impact of a variety of potential interventions.
• FluWork Loss 1.0: Estimates the potential number of days lost from work due to an influenza pandemic.
• Influenza School Closure: Examines the effect caused by school closures using different contact matrices.

Vaccination Planning and Evaluation

• RabiesEcon: Assists planning large-scale dog rabies vaccination programs.

• Public health impact of including two lineages of influenza B in a quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine: Estimates the public health impact on influenza-related health outcomes over 10 influenza seasons of producing and using a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV).
• Assessing the Cost-Effectiveness of Microneedle Patches in Childhood Measles Vaccination Programs- Excel Supplement: Computes the vaccination costs for using microneedle patch and syringe-and-needle technologies.
• RSV Immunization Impact Model: Compares the impact of multiple immunization products and strategies on medically-attended lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in infants across various healthcare settings.

Tools to Assess Public Health Surveillance and Interventions

• Dental Caries Among Alaska Native Children in the YK Region: Evaluates the economic costs and benefits of dental interventions used to reduce dental caries among Alaskan Native children in the YK Delta Region from the dental payer perspective.

• Cost effectiveness of age-based targeted West Nile virus vaccine: Estimates costs and health outcomes of vaccination with West Nile virus vaccine compared to no vaccination among seven cohorts, spaced at 10-year intervals from ages 10 to 70 years, each followed until 90 years old.
• Economic evaluation of preventive malaria treatment to contacts of Ebola patients in the context of the West Africa 2014 Ebola response: Analyzes the cost (in terms of treatment administration and averted hospitalization costs) and benefits (in terms of averted Ebola Treatment Unit admissions) of providing presumptive antimalarial treatment to contacts of suspected Ebola patients from a responder perspective.
• Shigellosis Tool: Estimates the number of days a child with shigellosis will be excluded from childcare, and the likelihood the child will be readmitted while infectious.
• Public Health Laboratory Impact Tool: Estimates a public health laboratory's contribution to and impact on Salmonella diagnostic testing.
• SurvCost: Aids public health officials with estimating the cost of Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) systems at different jurisdictions levels and to better understand the resources required to operate IDSR systems.