What to know
Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospital Admissions
- Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from all submitted models into one forecast. These forecasts have been among the most accurate for previous influenza forecasting efforts but may not reliably predict rapid changes in disease trends.
- This week, 29 modeling groups contributed 36 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
- The interactive figure shows the number of new laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from November 2024 through March 8, 2025 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks, through March 29, 2025. The colored areas on the graph show prediction intervals, which indicate the bounds of uncertainty around the forecast estimates.
National and State Forecasts
National Forecast
- Hospitals are required to report weekly laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). See Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs for additional details on this guidance.
- For these data, the following jurisdictions had <80% of hospitals reporting: Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Texas and Wyoming. Lower reporting rates could impact forecast validity. Percent of hospitals reporting is calculated based on the number of active hospitals reporting complete data to NHSN for a given reporting week.
- Forecast submissions are collected and stored in the FluSight GitHub repository, which also contains more detailed information about the forecast data and submission process.
State Forecast
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new influenza hospital admissions per week between states and only forecasts included in the ensemble are shown. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available.
Contributing Teams and Models
California Department of Public Health (Model: CADPH-FluCAT_Ensemble)
Carnegie Mellon Delphi Group (Model: CMU-TimeSeries)
CEPH Lab at Indiana University (Model: CEPH-Rtrend_fluH)
Columbia University (Model: CU-ensemble)
Fjordhest (Model: fjordhest-ensemble)
Fogarty International Center, NIH (Model: NIH-Flu_ARIMA)
Gatech-ISYE-TS (Model: Gatech-ensemble_point)
Gatech-ISYE-TS (Model: Gatech-ensemble_prob)
Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (Model: JHUAPL-DMD)
Los Alamos National Lab and Northern Arizona University (Model: LosAlamos_NAU-CModel_Flu)
LUcompUncertLab (Model: LUcompUncertLab-chimera)
Maryland Predict (Model: MDPredict-SIRS)
Metaculus (Model: Metaculus-cp)
MIGHTE (Model: MIGHTE-Joint)
MIGHTE (Model: MIGHTE-Nsemble)
MOBS Lab at Northeastern University and ISI Foundation (Model: NEU_ISI-AdaptiveEnsemble)
MOBS Lab at Northeastern University and ISI Foundation (Model: NEU_ISI-FluBcast)
MOBS Lab at Northeastern University (Model: MOBS-GLEAM_FLUH)
One Health Trust and Johns Hopkins University (Model: OHT_JHU-nbxd)
Predictive Science Inc. (Model: PSI-PROF)
Predictive Science Inc. (Model: PSI-PROF_beta)
Signature Science (Model: SigSci-TSENS)
Stevens Institute of Technology (Model: Stevens-ILIForecast)
The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University (Model: JHU_CSSE-CSSE_Ensemble)
UGA Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases (CEID) (Model: UGA_CEID-Walk)
UGA_flucast (Model: UGA_flucast-Copycat)
UGA_flucast (Model: UGA_flucast-INFLAenza)
UI_CompEpi (Model: UI_CompEpi-EpiGen)
UMass-Amherst (Model: UMass-flusion)
UNC Infectious Disease Dynamics (Model: UNC_IDD-InfluPaint)
University of Guelph Dynamics Training Lab (Model: UGuelph-CompositeCurve)
University of Guelph Dynamics Training Lab (Model: UGuelphensemble-GRYPHON)
University of Michigan, Computer Science and Engineering (Model: UM-DeepOutbreak)
UVAFluX (Model: UVAFluX-CESGCN)
UVAFluX (Model: UVAFluX-Ensemble)
VTSanghani (Model: VTSanghani-PRIME)